Tweaking The Schedule, Part Two
All is quiet tonight in Everett.
Dreamliner One is still off of its landing gear. ZY997 can't move to Building 40-23. The delay in first flight has reduced the urgency of the move. However, if the urgency was the same the aircraft would be unable to move. The spotting opportunity to see ZA001 and ZY997 together should come soon however.
As a result of the bottleneck preventing an assembly space from opening in Building 40-26, the delivery of ZY998, the Fatigue Airframe, has been postponed an additional 10 days. Shipment to Washington was originally planned for September 20. The delivery to Everett is now expected around September 30.
The pair of LCFs will be working this weekend. All major structures for the center fuselage of LN3/ZA003 will arrive from Japan and Italy on Sunday, September 16. They are scheduled to arrive at CHS within 45 minutes of one another. Parts forLN4/ZA004 should be arriving in Charleston two weeks after.
32 comments:
Thanks for another update Jon!
Do you have any information regarding the third LCF and when it will be put into service?
Jon, keep on with your good reports!
Dreamliner one is such a mess...digging for fasteners, documenting travel work, disassembly/reassembly...
I hate to say it, but it probably would have been better to tow this bird to the museum and get a fresh start
Boeing is clearly scrambling and rushing the work, and this is where compromises and mistakes are made, leading to crashes. They would be smart to just RESET the schedule to one that is realistic and reflects a point in time where the first sections are being assembled with correct fasteners. This would be about back to February of this year. They should then finish the structural work, wire-up and test the systems, do another roll-out, and get ready for first flight. Bottom line, they should RESET to 9 months back, thus pushing the EIS out 9 months.
That's right... everyone focus on when the first one flies, including all the financial gurus. Whether the first one flies this year or in the spring really doesn't matter. Someone should pull their head out of the sand and start figuring out how they really intend to deliver how many planes over how many years?
Yes, production throughput is vital but, as you can see, Boeing is in the fire fighting mode and battling one disaster at a time. They are flying by the seat of their pants and have thrown out the baseline plan by making last minute decisions such as swapping the timing of A/C #2 and the fatique frame. It is rather clear that little will go smoothly and the delays will be substantial. It might appear unthinkable, but certification could take over 2 years once they get into flight testing as there will be some very serious problems. The FAA is in no hurry to certify this radical design and production system which already has revealed some major deficiencies.
The interest on EIS is that we need to see this fly and go through hoops.
At EIS (or first delivery to be more accurate, according to airliners.net), we know something about airworthiness.
Delivery will be conditioned on that and on what the changes are that flight testing mandates.
So, it's a major gate that the OEM ought not take lightly (that is, all that must happen before the gate is crossed). Looking ahead, without a lot of conditional thinking, is not what we need.
To claim the program is "on track" for EIS in May08 is crazy talk and brings into question whether selective disclosure is in play(wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more).
Right now, Dreamliner One is the focus...Power On, ground tests, first flight...
I think the key thing that everyone needs to be looking towards is the assembly of 2, 3 and 4...these next birds, assembled in hopefully the correct sequence will really show the real issues/benefits of the outsource, modular, prestuffed model.
If issues like fuse gaps, travel work, temp fasteners continue to occur at that point, then we have some significant trials ahead of us. If the wiring doesn't match up in the fully prestuffed sections, it might get brutal...
However problems on a program this size do occur, especially at first, and I am sure that we will work through them.
If they have a space problem in Everett right now with just 2 assembly slots, then how can they possibly assemble the 4 RR test aircraft, and assemble both the static and fatique frames all by the end of the year as Bair stated on the conference call? I also found his claim that the test aircraft will be completed every 2 weeks to be laughable given their performance thus far.
Read carefully. Boeing is not saying EIS in May. They are saying DELIVERY in May.
IMO it was a big mistake rushing together a 1:1 scale model of a 787 for rollout. They are paying for it now with trying to catch up on the work not done and paper.
Boeing wants the 787 to be revolutionary, and have thrown out all the things that have made prior programs successful and replace them with risky and unproven approaches in virtually every area. They will get their revolution, in the form of a revolutionary failure!
I think it is important to recognize that the 787 will not be a failure. It might be late and there are significant challenges right now but ultimately it will be a success. The plane will eventually fly and it will be delivered and it will meet it's performance commitments. In the long term that is really all that matters.
Boeing will not deliver a plane that is not ready for EIS. Delivery means payment and I am certain that ANA is not about to pay for a plane that is not ready to generate revenue.
When they have not enough fasteners for ZA001 do they have enough fasteners for ZA002, ZA003, ...? Or have ZA001 other types than ZA002 and following planes?
Or have ZA002 temporary fasteners too?
Or have i a deadlock in my logic?
There is MANY things about ZA001 that are very different on ZA002 and beyond. And even MORE things that are even more different on ZA007 and beyond.
You all need to calm down... the program will not fail, the aircraft will not crash and the customer will get its aircraft when its ready. Be that May 08 or May 09.
The one thing i will say that seem that NO ONE outside Boeing has even thought of that fact that Ln1 will NOT fly first. Ln2 is already ahead of where ln1 will be at that time. Lessons have been learned and fixed (trust me...) and my educated guess is that Ln2 will actually be first to power on and fly.
If they do the same type thing with the flight test aircraft they are doing with the order of final assembly (leap frogging fatigue over ln2 and ln3) then why not leapfrog ln2, ln3, ln4 (and ln5 and ln6 for that matter) over ln1 get them flying and THEN bring ln1 into flight test when its done.
Do you people really thing Boeing is that dumb? Seriously!
Sometimes people on the floor have a skewed view of whats happening because they are frustrated, tired, or just plain incompetant. Don't beleive everyone that says they are on the floor and certainly take everything said by anyone NOT having direct information about this program with a large dosage of salt.
Dude. Dreamliner 2 sections are stalled for the same reason Dreamliner 1 is --- lack of correct fasteners!! Dreamliner 2 won't be stuffed by the suppliers until the correct fasteners are obtained and installed, which is no time soon FYI.
I am working for airlines and I do want to have the 787 delivered to airlines with enough maturity and safety in operation. It is very hard to believe that 787 can finish the flight test program for type certification in 6 months.
Haste makes waste !!!
Some of the comments left here are absurd at best. Suggesting that LN002 - LN006 will suffer the smae holdups that LN001 did is a bit over the top. The same initial (and unrequired) assembly for rollout only to be disassembled will not be required again. Things will happen once LN001 is on its wheels and moved out of the way.
- A good question that has been asked was whether the fastener shortage has prevented LN002 and LN003 from being 'stuffed' or whether that has taking place already....can anyone confirm?
- I would have imagined LN002 could be in a position to fly before LN001, are Boeing likely to allow that to happen?
Anonymous said... (at September 13, 2007 4:06 PM)
"You all need to calm down", hmmm!, familiar voice! at Boeing?
"Lessons have been learned and fixed (trust me...)", we can only hope. Boeing has to realize that it fanned these interests (that are non-calm) that we're seeing with its incomplete message meant to titillate (yet withhold). If you're at Boeing, try to get some openness that allows engineers to talk, not the 'talking head' types. I know, asking the impossible.
"Sometimes people on the floor have a skewed view", thank you for using 'sometimes' as we know that those on the floor deal with the reality; can not we also ask: at all times does not management have a skewed view? Is it only engineering that knows what is what?
Whatever. It'll happen. And, there will be plenty of post mortem analyses to last the life of the program.
Vote if you have not.
If you have, thanks.
Would you like to respond to the 'reason for interest' (role) poll?
Comments are encouraged.
@Anon 10:58
As Bair pointed out, manufacturing fasteners is a 2-step process, setup & manufacture.
I seem to remember that there were nine different types of fasteners in short supply.
Just for grins, assume a whole day to setup the production line and X items made per day. Assume that it takes around 2 days on average to make enough of a specific fastener for the first 6 flight airframes plus the test articles.
So, in 27 days, the manufacturer could make enough fasteners for completion of flight testing, but it would still take an entire month before there were enough fasteners of each type available for the first flight airframe.
Fasteners will still be ready before software is complete, though, so more fasteners could be made on each setup cycle.
I've given illustrative numbers, and I'm very sure that Boeing's calculus dictates a very specific manufacturing target for each SKU.
PS. Anonymous, if you use (other) & maintain a consistent moniker, you can build a solid reputation (or otherwise), remain anonymous & distance yourself from the also-rans.
You think fasteners are a problem, why not dig into the FACT that the design requirements for the Flight Control Software were only recently baselined by Boeing, years later than planned. If they expect Honeywell to deliver anything only weeks later is pure insanity. Honeywell will need a year to code, test, and fix the software, then document it for DO-178B certification, required for overall certification.
What time are those two LCF's estimated to arrive on the 16th?
thanks
Stand by for A/P #2 to be first out of the blocks.
Whoever just left that last comment please contact me ASAP. flightblogger (at) gmail (dot) com. Your anonymity is guaranteed.
"Stand by for A/P #2 to be first out of the blocks."
I concur. Slapping together ZA001 to make rollout on the special date could cost the certification program a test article. To make matters even worst, loss of the heavily instrumentated S&C airplane forces airworthness testing onto other test airplanes. Not only does this require reshuffling test planning but it throws the build process into chaos at the worst time (new requirements equals more work in Everett).
However, it won't matter if the flight control software certification is as late as indicated.
No. Dreamliner One is being used to work all the bugs out of the design, documentation, and installation processes. Dreamliner Two won't be moved in front on One.
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