To Ten or Not to Ten?

Dominic Gates penned a spot-on piece in yesterday's Seattle Times. He examined the battle brewing between the Boeing and Airbus on the future of the 350 seat market.

First off, it's worth noting that the fact that these strategic decisions are being made on both sides ultimately validates the two-engine point-to-point strategy. However, Boeing cannot rest on its laurels and current success. Complacency will win them no orders. Boeing owns the 787-8 market (531 orders to date) because a comparison to the A350-800 just doesn't hold up under scrutiny. Its competitor is the -9, not the -8.

Where Airbus actually goes right in their direction is to attack the 777/A340 market. The A350-900 and -1000 are going to go head to head with the 777-200ER and -300ER. The 777 has only been in service for twelve years and the -300ER only flew for the first time in February of 2003. However, this creates a distinctly awkward situation for both plane makers. Airlines currently flying the 777 variants aren't looking to replace them; the market for Airbus here might not be as large as they think. They've made no secret of the fact that the 350 seat market is their target with new customers in Emirates and Qantas. The reason the 787 struck gold was because it hit the market at exactly the right moment to replace aging 767 fleets.

The is extremely awkward for Boeing as well. Boeing is hesitant to commit on the 787-10 for good reasons. First, an early retirement of the -300ER to find a suitable 350 seat replacement doesn't make sense. It's a hugely successful airplane and making a successful hot-selling product (the -300ER) obsolete at this stage by one's own design might not be the best decision. Second, the 787-10 is more in response to the A350-900 than the -1000. A 787-10 would eat into their own 777-200ER market more than the -300ER. It is undoubtedly better to make your own product (-200ER) obsolete than have your competitor do it for you. Most importantly, Boeing isn't sure that an ultra-stretched 787 to 350 seats would produce the same level of efficiency as the shorter models.

Airbus is looking to introduce the three A350 variants one year apart from one another. The -900 is expected to enter service in 2013, followed by the -800 in 2014 and the -1000 the following year. According to Boeing, 787-10 would debut in 2013 a full year before the A350-1000. Boeing does have time to make a decision here, especially based on the fact that both the -900 has to be on time before the -800 or -1000 ever see the light of day. (Remember, the likelihood of seeing an A380-900 is extremely slim.) This is Airbus' chance to redeem themselves after the A380 delays. If they rise to the challenge, and I believe they will out of an existential need, Airbus will have succeeded in eating into the 777 market midway through its life. They did this successfully with the A330 against the 767.

Upgrades and advances in the 777-300ER might be the wisest option ultimately. Increased use of lightweight composites along with engine advances might stave off the threat of the A350-1000 until a full 777 family replacement can come to fruition around 2020. The -10 is the right choice for Boeing, but not for the 350 seat market.

Two Places At Once

Somehow, I managed to defy the laws of gravity, physics and the universe and be in two places at once. I had an excellent vantage point of the departures at PAE yesterday afternoon. Watching the seven series aircraft lined up for departure one after another was truly an amazing sight. After the 757 departed PAE, I, along with famed night-time photographer Charles Conklin, raced down to BFI in time to see the 777-300ER do a fly over. The 777 had already begun its taxi when we left. I have the honor of saying, I raced a 777, and won.

I took a little video from my cell phone camera and put it on youtube.



Here are some of my favorite shots from yesterday. Please note these are 100% unedited images and have not been modified at all except for the copyright mark.

Parade of Sevens

Post time is EDT. -3 hours for PDT.

Editors Note 1: This is the first post from Seattle.
Editors Note 2: This information was not purchased and was provided at the courtesy of a source.

Last night as I was taxiing to the gate at SEA after my cross country flight, my phone rings and on the other line comes the complete schedule for tonight's events at PAE and BFI.

The rumors are true, the parade of Seven series aircraft will take place tonight, July 7, 2007 (7/7/07). Boeing will leave PAE tonight with eight aircraft (707 through 777) beginning at 1835 PDT.

Saturday, July 7, 2007
All times in PDT
1000 LCF2 Returns to PAE (Wings for Static Frame believed to be aboard)
1300 LCF2 Leaves PAE for BFI
1320 LCF2 Arrives at BFI
1400 FedEx 727-200 (tail N464FE) positions at PAE
1400 Delta 767-300 (tail TBD) arrives at PAE
1415 Alaska 737 (tail TBD) arrives at PAE
1500 AirTran 717 (tail TBD) arrives at PAE
1530 Continental 757 (tail TBD) arrives at PAE
1600 Crew meeting for all involved pilots
1700 Group photo for all aircraft
1820 Crews are in place with all aircraft
1830 Museum of Flight Reception begins at BFI
1835 707 taxis, 717 through 777 taxi behind and depart PAE
1900 NOTAM for BFI released - South Field Shut Down
1902 Welcome Remarks at BFI Reception

1907 Omega Air 707 (tail N707MQ) Operating as Omega 1 - Touchdown at BFI
1917 Air Tran 717 Operating at B717B - Touchdown at BFI
1927 FedEx 727 - Touchdown at BFI
1937 Alaska 737 - Touchdown at BFI
1947 Rolls Royce 747-200 (tail N787RR) Operating as N787RR - Touchdown at BFI
1957 Continental 757 - Touchdown at BFI
2007 Delta 767 Operating as DAL9900 - Touchdown at BFI
2017 Air France 777-300ER (tail F-GSQY) Operating as BOE536 - Touchdown at BFI

2038 Rolls Royce 747 taxis at BFI on three engines
2045 707 + 717 towed to Museum of Flight
- 707 and LCF2 will spend the night at BFI
2200 Rolls Royce 747 heads to BFI

All eyes on the sky. Mine certainly will.

Simple Characters, Complex Character

The registration an aircraft wears often tells a story much larger than that a simple series of letters and numbers. John Travolta's world touring 707 wears N707JT along with classic QANTAS colors. The Nike Corporate G-V is cleverly adorned with N1KE. The European equivalent is found in 5 letters, the A380 wore special temporary registrations F-WXXL and F-WWOW to represent the sheer size and stature of the Airbus Superjumbo. The 747 prototype still wears N7470 and the 777 prototype wore N7771.

Which brings me to the Dreamliner. It's not known what registration the first 787 will wear, but there are some ideas out there as to what it may end up being.

There has been talk of the tail bearing N787DL (DL for Dreamliner), N78781 and N7871. However, after some research, one particular registration stands out above the rest as a likely candidate. Not to mention some interesting clues to go along with it. When searching for N787BA on Google, there is not a single result. However, there is one very big clue. Google automatically searches the FAA registration database when an N-number is the search term.

So what does the FAA tell us about N787BA?

N787BA
Reserved N-Number
Type Reservation Fee Paid
Mode S Code 52525241
Reserved Date 11/21/2001
Renewal Date 10/16/2006
Purge Date 12/21/2007
Pending Number Change None
Data Change Authorized None
Reserving Party Name BOEING COMPANY
Street 2601 LIBERTY PKWY
City MIDWEST CITY
State OKLAHOMA
Zip Code 73110-2855
County OKLAHOMA
Country UNITED STATES

The first massive clue here is the fact that the previously unused registration is being held by Boeing itself. The second clue is the fact that Midwest City, OK is where the FAA bases both it's Airman Certification branch and Aircraft Registration department.

If I were a betting man, I would say Dreamliner One will wear N787BA.

Flight Plans: 3rd Edition

This blog is authored in Boston, Massachusetts. When this post was first imagined, the weather was miserable. A high of 48 degrees with a mix of sleet and rain. This went on for far too long for April weather. Spring has finally arrived here in Boston, yet during the foul weather of last week, I felt inspired to feature a flight that would take me out of that gross weather.

This week's featured flight plan is a leg of United 3, a three airport tour from Chicago O'Hare to Kahului, HI and then to Kona, HI, then back to Chicago O'Hare. United 3 is flown with a Boeing 777-200. The Chicago trip is about 8 hours long, however, the Kahului-Kona leg is a mere 18 minutes.

For the sake of full disclosure, this writer has a distinct interest in ultra-short haul flights flown by heavy aircraft. This post is an indulgence in this interest.

The flight from Kahului to Kona is an extraordinary tour of the two largest Hawaiian Island, Hawaii and Maui. The departure off of runway 2 or 20 (6995 ft.) has the 777 crossing over the OGG (Maui) VOR at northern end of the airport, joining the 030 radial and climbing to 2000 feet. Once at 2000 feet the Triple 7 makes a right turn to 100 towards the 069 radial of OGG, continuing a climb to 4400. When crossing 4400 feet the United flight turns to intercept the 069 OGG radial.

The climb continues to 7000 feet towards the OPANA intersection. During this climb, the passengers on the right side of the aircraft are treated to an extraordinary view of Opana Point and Haleakala National Park and a volcano that peaks 3000 feet above the climbing 777. After crossing OPANA, the aircraft turns back to 100 and flies to intercept the 085 radial and then direct to BARBY.

When crossing BARBY, the 777 then begins the VECKI6 arrival into PHKO. The 777 captures the 351 radial to the IAI (Kona) VOR, turning right to a heading of 171. After flying for 39 nm on the 351 radial over intersections ALONE and KAYLI and decending through 9000 to 3000, the localizer is captured on the Runway 17 ILS approach. The decending heavy slightly adjusts its heading to 171 and continues toward PHKO.

With gear down and locked, the passengers on the left side of the aircraft are treated to a visual feast of Kawaihae Bay, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa in the distance. The 18 minute flight ends as the 777-200 touches the runway at Kona to pick up more passengers before returning to the less tropical windy city of Chicago.

OPANA2 BARBY VECKI6

Editor's Note: It has taken longer to write this post than the duration of UAL003.

Flight Plans: 2nd Edition

Boeing went through an interesting phase in its corporate life in the late 1990s and early part of this decade. In short, it was a manufacturer of derivative aircraft. Aircraft like the 717, 737-600/700/800/900, 747-400ER, the 757-300, the 777-200LR/300ER rolled off the production line. Aircraft like these stretched the capabilities of the existing Boeing (or old McDonnell Douglas) product line without actually adding an entirely new product. During this time period Boeing was criticized for its lack of new offerings to the market.

One such derivative offering was the 767-400ER. A stretched 767 that fit in just below the 777-200, seating between 245 to 375 passengers. The aircraft had several very interesting features. The aircraft was the first on Boeing's product line that featured raked wingtips. Now standard on the 777-200LR/300ER, 747-800 and 787-800/900. In addition, the interior design incorporated the very popular 777 interior with curved overhead bins and new lighting. Another 777 feature which made it onto the 400ER was the introduction of the 777 style cockpit. The 777 and 767-400ER flight decks are practically indistinguishable from one another. The only exceptions being the non-glass backup instruments, no cursor control device and CRT flight management computer screens.

The 400ER was designed as a replacement for the retiring DC-10s and L1011s. Rumors still exist today whether or not the 400ER was designed specifically for Delta. Today the 400ER flies with Delta (21) and Continental (26) and has been moved around on many different types of routes. Some to Hawaii, some within the continental US, at one point to Europe and South America. The 767-400ER routes are constantly changing and have been subject of much discussion within the aviation enthusiast community. This niche aircraft, which will likely be replaced by the 787-900 (which Continental has purchased), has not seen a new order since it's first deliveries in 2000.

I had the chance to fly on a Delta 767-400ER on two legs in 2003. One from SLC to LAX and the other from LAX to ATL. Today, Delta still flies the 400ER on the LAX-ATL route. The flight takes a tour of the southern part of the United States, which starts with the HOLTZ Eight (page 2) departure out over the Pacific, then back around towards Palm Springs. The flight covers northern Arizona and New Mexico, Amarillo, Texas, Oklahoma City and Memphis, Tennessee, setting up an arrival from the Northwest to the Jackson-Hartsfield Atlanta International Airport.

HOLTZ8 TRM BXK PXR ONM CNX PNH SYO IRW FSM MEM ERLIN2

All Boeing 767-400ER flights over North America.

Boeing 787 Tails

A new feature here at Flightblogger is a graphic I've put together of all the Boeing 787 customer tails. I was inspired by the Boeing 777-200 prototype which featured the tails of the 19 customers on the side of the nose. When the 787 rolls out, Boeing is going to need some serious space to fit all the logos. The tails were generated from the newairplane.com 787 website.

This is a Flightblogger first, and an exclusive:

The graphic will be updated as new customers are added.

UPDATE
Airlines not currently included (but will be added):

Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
Flyglobespan
Hong Kong Airlines
Travel Service