April 5, 2007

500 (and 14), Part 2

Randy's Blog captured it nicely on this graph.

One of the comments to his post really hit the nail on the head:

Gary Glover (Sydney Australia):
If you think the 787 has sold well just wait 'til you see the 737 replacement
Posted on April 5, 2007 01:42
Here in lies the next REAL challenge for the commercial aviation industry. By 2012 or 15 the market is going to be screaming for a 737/A320 family replacement. The first NGs will be pushing 20, the Classics will be approaching 30, and the older A320s around 25ish. The competition for this market will be more fierce than anything either Airbus or Boeing has ever experienced.

From a globalization standpoint, the middle part of the second decade of the 21st century will provide a truly global playing field for the narrow-body replacement market. I'm not speaking of the customer base, because that was always a global market. I'm speaking of manufacturers. Airbus and Boeing will be offering a replacement for their older products, however, there will be new national players vying for that market. Namely Embraer in Brazil, AVIC I in China, Bombardier in Canada and maybe, just maybe Fokker (though EU politics may handle this one accordingly).

Look for Airbus to expand their manufacturing deal with China on the A320s to the A320NGs to try and keep them from developing their own product for market. I would put my money on national prestige winning the day on this one, which means an emerging Chinese aviation market rocks the industry to its roots. As for Brazil, the E190/195 is already taking the place of the smaller A318 and 737-500/600 market. This is really the prologue to a much larger battle that's coming in the next 10 years.

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